I take a deeper look at Utah's decision to trade three first-round picks for one and how it could signal how teams evaluate and utilize them in trades going forward.
(1) You mentioned, "The Jazz concluded that the Suns’ 2031 first-round pick, with whatever methods they used to calculate it, is so valuable that they were willing to consolidate not two, but three future first-round picks for it." I have read about Kevin Pelton's system for calculating draft pick value, are there any others that you know of that are relevant around the league or are these metrics held internally?
(2) Do you think that teams around the league believe MIL/DEN's '31 FRPs could hold the same relative value as PHX's '31 pick given that they have top-3 players in Giannis/Jokic? Far enough away that anything can happen?
1. I’m sure most teams have their own research methods for valuing draft picks.
2. IMO Nuggets/Bucks firsts probably aren’t viewed as highly because of Jokic/Giannis. But if you’re OKC, and you already have 27 and 29 Nuggets firsts, you may get the sense those won’t be too valuable. If so, why not kick the can further down the road by swapping them for a later nuggets first?
You make a good point about the flexibility that having a pick so far out offers. I wonder how teams project value for picks that far out (weighing a relatively high chance of two late firsts versus the chance of one pick being in the lottery) and if that changes for a team that is rebuilding versus contending. Thanks for the response.
Two questions:
(1) You mentioned, "The Jazz concluded that the Suns’ 2031 first-round pick, with whatever methods they used to calculate it, is so valuable that they were willing to consolidate not two, but three future first-round picks for it." I have read about Kevin Pelton's system for calculating draft pick value, are there any others that you know of that are relevant around the league or are these metrics held internally?
(2) Do you think that teams around the league believe MIL/DEN's '31 FRPs could hold the same relative value as PHX's '31 pick given that they have top-3 players in Giannis/Jokic? Far enough away that anything can happen?
Appreciate the analysis as always!
1. I’m sure most teams have their own research methods for valuing draft picks.
2. IMO Nuggets/Bucks firsts probably aren’t viewed as highly because of Jokic/Giannis. But if you’re OKC, and you already have 27 and 29 Nuggets firsts, you may get the sense those won’t be too valuable. If so, why not kick the can further down the road by swapping them for a later nuggets first?
You make a good point about the flexibility that having a pick so far out offers. I wonder how teams project value for picks that far out (weighing a relatively high chance of two late firsts versus the chance of one pick being in the lottery) and if that changes for a team that is rebuilding versus contending. Thanks for the response.