A New Era in First-Round Pick Asset Management

I take a deeper look at Utah's decision to trade three first-round picks for one and how it could signal how teams evaluate and utilize them in trades going forward.

On Tuesday, the Phoenix Suns traded their 2031 first-round pick to the Utah Jazz for three first-round picks in 2025, 2027, and 2029. The future implications for the Suns as it portends a potential Jimmy Butler trade dominated the reactions to this more than the trade itself. I'm guilty of this as I quickly praised the Jazz for this deal before getting into hypothetical Butler-to-Phoenix trades.

But when you take a closer look at this deal, it has deeper implications for the future of the draft pick market. This trade is so unique because the Jazz had the choice to target a specific draft pick they highly value, as opposed to being locked into getting what they can from teams like the Cavaliers and Timberwolves. It feels like we're entering a new frontier of draft pick evaluation and trades involving teams with high-pick surpluses.

If you're up to date with Third Apron, you'll probably notice I talk about the uneven distribution of future first-round picks quite a bit. The Nets, Thunder, and Jazz all have at least 11 first-round picks over the next seven drafts. This is a great advantage under the new CBA but also presents a good problem: what do you do with all these selections? You can't make a selection with all of them.

After half a decade of hoarding draft picks, these specific teams are finding ways to optimize the distribution of their surplus. The Jazz concluded that the Suns’ 2031 first-round pick, with whatever methods they used to calculate it, is so valuable that they were willing to consolidate not two, but three future first-round picks for it. This trade not only gives them a specifically targeted selection but also serves the practical purpose of reducing their excess surplus in three different draft classes.

The biggest criticism the Jazz may receive was that they traded too many picks for one selection. As valuable as that selection may be, there's still a chance one of the selections they sent out ends up just as valuable. How much of a difference could there be right now between a 2031 first-round pick and a 2029?

The Suns' selection feels like a good bet to hit because of their future outlook. They are out four of their own first-round picks over the next seven drafts due to the Kevin Durant trade and this week’s swap. And the selections they have in 2026, 2028, and 2030 will probably be late first-round picks due to swapping them out multiple times¹. Realistically, the Suns' current window with Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and maybe Jimmy Butler is for this season and the next.

Things could get shaky beyond next season once their top players start to age out. That, along with their limited means to add young talent through the draft, has led to discussion on their 2031 first-round pick being the most valuable individual first-round pick going forward. The fact that the Suns extracted two additional first-round picks for it suggests they fully understand their circumstances and why their 2031 pick is perceived as highly valuable.

I think that selection is valuable but not necessarily because it is owned by the Suns. The value in any first-round pick that far out is the time on it. The Jazz have six years to figure out what to do with it, though history suggests they'll want to make a decision on it sooner rather than later before it potentially depreciates.

Here's a historical example to better illustrate my point. In 2020, the Pelicans traded Jrue Holiday to the Bucks for 2025 and 2027 unprotected first-round picks, and unprotected swaps in 2024 and 2026. These picks seemed valuable at the time since they'd be due when Giannis Antetokounmpo's supermax extension would expire, and maybe his prime as well.

The Pelicans weren’t able to extract a ton of value for these selections alone. In 2022, the Bucks were coming off a championship and didn’t seem likely to fall apart in three years. So they traded the 2025 first-round pick to the Blazers for CJ McCollum. They also traded the Bucks 2027 first-round pick to the Hawks, along with Dyson Daniels and another first-round pick, to acquire Dejounte Murray.

But if there's anyone who can gauge the real-time value of a future first-round pick, it's Jazz executive Danny Ainge. In his time in Boston, he extracted three high lottery selections from the Nets (2016, 2017, and 2018), and one late lottery selection from the Kings (2019) and Grizzlies (2020). While he held onto all but one of these selections, this trade with the Suns suggests he may be more proactive with Jazz's surplus of future first-round picks.

Maybe in two or three years, the Suns will completely fall apart and the Jazz will have a multitude of strong offers from teams bearish on the Suns in 2031. The Jazz could be good by then, meaning they could have a premium asset to parlay into someone who could accelerate their window. They could also flip it for more draft equity from the next team they believe has a poor outlook — replenishing their surplus and resetting the cycle.

I'm curious to see now if this framework will be replicated by the Thunder and Nets. The Thunder have already taken steps to reduce their surplus of first-round picks by parlaying them into pick swaps². This allows them to maintain a high surplus but run the risk of not receiving any value for them if the swaps don't convey. But that seems unlikely given how high their trajectory is over the rest of the decade. The swaps should convey, but they may not yield very high selections.

Similarly to the Jazz, the Nets have a high surplus of first-round picks that are mostly bunched up in the same draft classes (2025, 2027, and 2029). Would they be interested in trading selections from those drafts to a team that lacks first-round draft equity for a 2031 pick? Teams like the Cavaliers, Mavericks, Nuggets, Clippers, Heat, Bucks, Wolves, and Sixers are in similar first-round pick deficits as the Suns and could trade their 2031 selections.

These teams have become so hamstrung by giving the Nets, Thunder, and Jazz so many first-round picks that they've empowered them to become mafia-like gatekeepers. Need some first-round picks to open up trade flexibility? You'll have to go through them first.

The Bucks in particular seem like a team that could use a deal like this. They only have their 2031 first and second-round picks available to trade. They are reportedly seeking an expensive upgrade to the roster. If they could turn one first-round pick into three, perhaps they could acquire a player like Zach LaVine. The additional draft compensation could satisfy the Bulls for trading LaVine and for taking on bad salaries from the Bucks.

The Nuggets could really use a deal like this since they can't trade a single draft pick ahead of the trade deadline. They technically cannot trade their 2031 first-round pick since the 2029 first-round pick they owe to the Thunder encombers their 2030 selection. Maybe the Thunder would be interested in sending Denver its 2027 and 2029 selections back in return for their 2031 selection? This too could allow the Nuggets to acquire Zach LaVine while satisfying the Bulls for taking on Zeke Nnaji and Dario Saric.

The long-prevailing notion for the Nets, Thunder, and Jazz is that they'll eventually consolidate all their extra picks for an All-Star. And that may still be a possibility (unless you're the Thunder who already drafted three All-Stars). Instead, they may consolidate them for other draft picks. This could lead to a redistribution of picks back to some teams with major deficits while teams with surpluses get fewer but higher-quality selections and swaps.

These surplus teams could theoretically keep flipping their picks for more distant picks for eternity without ever making selections with them to keep their surplus alive. But I think the more they play the future picks market, the more they increase their probability of eventually landing a super valuable pick they could actually make a selection with.

1. It’s worth noting that their 2032 first-round pick will be frozen due to finishing this season over the second apron, but they’d be unable to trade it anyway due to the Stepien rule. But it’ll likely get locked to the end of the first round once they presumably finish 2025-26 over the second apron again, killing any swapping potential.

2. The Thunder traded an unfavorable 2026 first-round pick to the Sixers for a Clippers 2027 swap as part of the 2023 James Harden trade. They also traded a late 2024 Clippers first-round pick to the Wizards for a Mavericks 2028 swap as part of the 2024 Daniel Gafford trade.

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