The Mirage of Free Agency
I look ahead into 2026 free agency and use it as an example to explain the futility of counting on a free agent class coming to fruition and teams' cap space projections ahead of one.
There was a good amount of hype about the 2025 free agency class two to three years ago. If you looked at free agency lists you’d see players like Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, Jimmy Butler, Jamal Murray, Lauri Markkanen, Brandon Ingram, and Rudy Gobert. Your favorite team may have been reported to be preparing to have cap space to pursue one of these players.
Fast forward to last summer and every single one of these players has signed long-term extensions. Does this story sound familiar? That’s because this has been the story of just about every single free agency class since 2019. Players have trended to signing extensions post-Covid and the new expanded extension rules will likely keep it going1.
And it appears that extensions are set to dry up what has been a somewhat hyped 2026 free agency class. I go over the top free agents, most of whom will be extension-eligible this summer, and explain why it’s unlikely they switch teams in free agency. Then I look at the teams that currently project to have significant cap space in the 2026 offseason and which ones could actually have cap space by the time we get there.